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Descripción
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Climate change poses a significant threat to Afrotemperate flora, particularly to the species isolated in high-altitude ecosystems, such as in the East African sky islands. This study assesses the vulnerability of Afrotemperate flora, using tropical Afroalpine and Afromontane Helichrysum (Compositae) taxa as a model system, by evaluating their climatic niches and future distribution shifts, range fragmentation, and altitudinal boundaries under climate change scenarios.
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Palabra clave
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Afrotemperate taxa, Africa’s sky islands, climate change, Helichrysum, ecological niche modeling, habitat fragmentation, altitudinal shift, conservation |
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Notas
| Occurrence records for 14 Helichrysum (8 tropical Afroalpine and 6 Afromontane) taxa were compiled from biodiversity databases and herbaria. Ecological niche models were developed using an ensemble approach that integrated Generalized Linear Models, Generalized Boosting Models, and Random Forest techniques. Taxon-specific bioclimatic variables were selected after correlation analysis. Models were calibrated using current climate data and projected under IPSL-CM6A-LR and MRI-ESM2.0 models, using both lowest and highest emission scenarios. |
